内容简介

Have you ever . . .

Invested time in something that, in hindsight, just wasn't worth it?

Paid too much in an eBay auction?

Continued to do something you knew was bad for you?

Sold stocks too late, or too early?

Taken credit for success, but blamed failure on external circumstances?

Backed the wrong horse?

These are examples of what the author calls cognitive biases, simple errors all of us make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices: whether in dealing with personal problems or business negotiations, trying to save money or earn profits, or merely working out what we really want in life—and strategizing the best way to get it.

Already an international bestseller, The Art of Thinking Clearly distills cutting-edge research from behavioral economics, psychology, and neuroscience into a clever, practical guide for anyone who's ever wanted to be wiser and make better decisions. A novelist, thinker, and entrepreneur, Rolf Dobelli deftly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic hyperactivity—all we need is less irrationality.

Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision making—at work, at home, every day. From why you shouldn't accept a free drink to why you should walk out of a movie you don't like, from why it's so hard to predict the future to why you shouldn't watch the news, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

作者简介

Rolf Dobelli is a bestselling writer and entrepreneur. He is the founder of Zurich.Minds, a community of some of the world's most famed and distinguished thinkers, scientists, artists, and entrepreneurs, and a cofounder of getAbstract, the world's largest publisher of compressed knowledge.A novelist, sailor, and pilot, he lives in Lucerne, Switzerland.

精彩摘录

幸存偏误里是指由于日常生活中更容易看到成功、看不到失败，你会系统性地高估成功的希望，不了解现实的你对成功抱有一种幻想，认识不到成功的概率有多微弱。媒体没兴趣去刨挖失败者的墓地，这事也不归他们负责。这意味着要想缓解幸存偏误，你就得了解这些。如果你本身就是"幸存者"的一分子，幸存偏误就非常麻烦了。哪怕你的成功纯属偶然，你也会发现你与其他成功者的共同点，并将它们诠释为“成功因素”。不过在逛失败者(人员、公司等)的墓地时你会发现，这些人经常也运用了他们以为的"成功因素"。幸存偏误意味着你系统性地高估了成功概率。解决办法，尽可能常去逛逛曾经大有希望的项目、投资和事业的墓地。这样的散步虽然伤感，但对你是有好处的。

——引自章节：全本

他们之所以成为出色的游泳选手，是因为他们拥有这样的身材。他们的身躯是一种选挥标准，而不是他们运动的结果。因此这又是游泳选手身材错觉：将选择标准与结果搞混淆了。

——引自章节：全本