Emanuel Derman was a quantitative analyst (Quant) at Goldman Sachs, one of the financial engineers whose mathematical models became crucial for Wall Street. The reliance investors put on such quantitative analysis was catastrophic for the economy, setting off the ongoing string of financial crises that began with the mortgage market in 2007 and continues through today. Here Derman looks at why people -- bankers in particular -- still put so much faith in these models, and why it's a terrible mistake to do so. Though financial models imitate the style of physics and employ the language of mathematics, ultimately they deal with human beings. There is a fundamental difference between the aims and potential achievements of physics and those of finance. In physics, theories aim for a description of reality; in finance, at best, models can shoot only for a simplistic and very limited approximation to it. When we make a model involving human beings, we are trying to force the ugly stepsister's foot into Cinderella's pretty glass slipper. It doesn't fit without cutting off some of the essential parts. Physicists and economists have been too enthusiastic to acknowledge the limits of their equations in the sphere of human behavior--which of course is what economics is all about. Models.Behaving.Badly includes a personal account of Derman's childhood encounters with failed models--the oppressions of apartheid and the utopia of the kibbutz. He describes his experience as a physicist on Wall Street, the models quants generated, the benefits they brought and the problems, practical and ethical, they caused. Derman takes a close look at what a model is, and then highlights the differences between the successes of modeling in physics and its failures in economics. Describing the collapse of the subprime mortgage CDO market in 2007, Derman urges us to stop the naive reliance on these models, and offers suggestions for mending them. This is a fascinating, lyrical, and very human look behind the curtain at the intersection between mathematics and human nature.
《中国社会改革评论(第1辑)》内容简介:社会改革是中国特色社会主义事业总体布局中社会建设的重要组成部分。本书由北京市委社会工
《呵护子宫,健康一生》内容简介:本书是一本子宫健康书。子宫与女性靓丽的容颜、健康的身心、幸福的生活息息相关,它是女性身体中
《领导者必须保留的11张底牌》内容简介:组织的成败在很大程度上取决于领导者的行为,领导者有成熟的思想和价值观,组织就会发展壮
《腾讯之道》内容简介:放眼整个中国乃至全球,腾讯都是一家成功的互联网企业,它代表中国企业在世界互联网版图中竖起了一面高高的
时间序列分析-(上下册) 本书特色 近几年间,研究者分析时间序列数据的方式发生了显著的变化。因此,很有必要对这一日益重要的研究领域的新近发展进行综合,并整体呈现...
国际仲裁科学探索-实证研究精选集 本书特色 《国际仲裁科学探索:实证研究精选集》:民事诉讼法学精粹译丛书国际仲裁科学探索-实证研究精选集 内容简介 《国际仲裁科...
《重来3:跳出疯狂的忙碌》内容简介:在叫嚣着“颠覆世界”“商场如战场”的这个时代,好像人人都在想着改变世界——这为他们每天晚
《注册会计师全国统一考试专用辅导教材:经济法经典题库》内容简介:《注册会计师全国统一考试专用辅导教材:经济法经典题库》所选
《摇响青春的风铃》内容简介:年轻的日子,仿佛总是阳光灿烂的。那时候,可以肆意,可以挥洒,可以旁若无人。青春而且无畏,相信并
《婺源史话》内容简介:婺源被誉为“中国美的乡村”。婺源不仅自然环境优美怡人,而且历史文化底蕴深厚。本书以简洁、优美的语言,
《轮子、战车与帝国》内容简介:轮子、马镫、弓箭、火药和帆船,在历史的时间线上,每一个器物都有它值得诉说的故事,它们引发国家
1.硅谷创投教父、PayPal创始人彼得•蒂尔、LinkedIn创始人里德•霍夫曼、创业导师本•霍洛维茨、“PayPal黑帮”初创成员埃里克•杰克
《硬件产品经理手册:手把手构建智能硬件产品》内容简介:随着物联网的快速发展,软件与硬件逐渐融合,硬件产品经理这个角色越来越
《绩效设计:万众创业时代绩效架构与管理》内容简介:本书以绩效管理三重境界为主线依次展开。第一重境界是优术,关注的是绩效循环
经济学原理(全五册)(英汉对照全译本) 本书特色 本书是古典经济学派的经典教材,它试图借助于该时代的著作,就该时代出现的问题,对旧的学说重新进行解释。其主要内容...
《SEO搜索引擎优化实战手册》内容简介:本书从多重角度剖析SEO的发展现状,并以实战落地为宗旨,详细介绍了在当下主流平台(百度、
《财务自由快车道》内容简介:对你来说,什么是自由? 想象一下,你拥有一种令人兴奋的新生活,可以获得被动收入、长期回报,以及完
《张近东管理信念》内容简介:苏宁是江苏乃至全国引人瞩目的民营企业,在经营管理、产业拓展等方面表现可圈可点,是改革开放大背景
国富论 本书特色 这是一本将经济学、哲学、历史、政治理论和实践计划巧妙地混合在一起的书,一本由有着高深学问和睿智见识的人所写的书。国富论 内容简介 《国富论》成...
《移动电商》内容简介:本书是国内第一本移动电商实战宝典,本书通过“商业分析+模式案例+应用实战”3 大篇幅,深度讲解移动电商