Emanuel Derman was a quantitative analyst (Quant) at Goldman Sachs, one of the financial engineers whose mathematical models became crucial for Wall Street. The reliance investors put on such quantitative analysis was catastrophic for the economy, setting off the ongoing string of financial crises that began with the mortgage market in 2007 and continues through today. Here Derman looks at why people -- bankers in particular -- still put so much faith in these models, and why it's a terrible mistake to do so. Though financial models imitate the style of physics and employ the language of mathematics, ultimately they deal with human beings. There is a fundamental difference between the aims and potential achievements of physics and those of finance. In physics, theories aim for a description of reality; in finance, at best, models can shoot only for a simplistic and very limited approximation to it. When we make a model involving human beings, we are trying to force the ugly stepsister's foot into Cinderella's pretty glass slipper. It doesn't fit without cutting off some of the essential parts. Physicists and economists have been too enthusiastic to acknowledge the limits of their equations in the sphere of human behavior--which of course is what economics is all about. Models.Behaving.Badly includes a personal account of Derman's childhood encounters with failed models--the oppressions of apartheid and the utopia of the kibbutz. He describes his experience as a physicist on Wall Street, the models quants generated, the benefits they brought and the problems, practical and ethical, they caused. Derman takes a close look at what a model is, and then highlights the differences between the successes of modeling in physics and its failures in economics. Describing the collapse of the subprime mortgage CDO market in 2007, Derman urges us to stop the naive reliance on these models, and offers suggestions for mending them. This is a fascinating, lyrical, and very human look behind the curtain at the intersection between mathematics and human nature.
《王心斋家训译注》内容简介:本书共十四章,条理分明,内容详尽,说理透彻,践行亲切,广泛涉及良知、日用、学乐、格物、安身、造
《大订单销售》内容简介:本书总结了与成功销售息息相关的忠告和方法,提出了操作性强的销售技巧,帮助每一位有志成为销售精英人士
《国际经济学:理论与政策》(第6版)(下册国际金融部分)深刻洞悉了国际贸易和国际金融领域的变化和争议。著名经济学家保罗•克鲁格
《长城》内容简介:这是一部中国长城知识普及绘本,以爸爸带两个女儿沿着长城旅行为主线,介绍了长城的分布、修建历史、著名典故、
金泥玉屑叢考 内容简介 作者王仲荦先生,史学界名流,专旅于魏晋南北朝晋南北隋唐五代史,从他生平著作来说,他学识渊博,上起先秦诸子百家,下到近代史孙文、章太炎、陶...
《抖音盒子:开店、装修与运营从入门到精通》内容简介:抖音盒子作为一种新型卖货渠道,代表着各领域发展的新趋势和新方向,其对人
汉译-财富的分配 本书特色 作者昌欧美政治经济学的重要代表人物之一,他所著的《财富的分配》(1899年)一书是美国经济学的理论基础。作者景张把政治经济学分为三个...
《时间管理》内容简介:本书是知名个人成长专家吉姆·兰德尔的代表作,本书借助幽默有趣的人物与故事,来为读者讲述有关时间管理这
《乐学Windows操作系统》内容简介:本书以Windows操作系统的常见使用实例为主线,介绍了Windows操作系统的概念及其在资源管理和提供
《低风险投资十八种武器》内容简介:股市高手的投资术,让你牛市大赚,熊市稳赚! 谁都有一夜暴富的梦想,但不准备好武器就入市,股
《马琳的点心书:超爱做蛋糕》内容简介:本书作为《马琳的点心书》系列图书的第二本,收录了近60款创意蛋糕和12款自制饮品的制作方
《论家用电器》内容简介:空调会驯服室外灼热的阳光; 手机可以排遣人的孤独; 电视和电脑可以使人的好奇心得到满足(让人对外面发
《有意思的生活》内容简介:我们于日用必需的东西以外,还要有一点无用的游戏与享乐,生活才觉得有意思。本书精选76篇收录于《雨天
《鲁迅杂文精选》内容简介:杂文(也被鲁迅称之为“杂感”或“短评”),在中国是古已有之的,而现代杂文的兴趣、发展和繁荣,则是
《儿童歌曲器乐演奏启蒙——吉他》内容简介:本书是一套适于乐器初学者使用的简易曲集,包含二胡、古筝、琵琶、扬琴、竹笛、钢琴、
《公司理财师基础知识》内容简介:本书是公司理财师培训系列教材之一,侧重于对公司理财基本框架和理念的讲解,以融资、投资决策、
《大学生组织思想政治教育感染性研究》内容简介:本书立足现代思想政治教育实际,广泛汲取社会学、心理学、教育学和管理学相关理论
《量化研究体系:以7大模块为核心》内容简介:本书是以给广大量化研究者建立一个一般性的量化研究流程(主要是量化策略开发,也包括
《社会与经济:信任、权力与制度》内容简介:《社会与经济》是新经济社会学奠基人格兰诺维特匠心独具的扛鼎之作,本书第一次全面地
《是时候懂点经济学了》内容简介:懂点经济学,让生活好过点!不用数学也能看懂22个经济流派重要理论,指导理财买房炒股求职,预测