内容简介

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

作者简介

Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.

精彩摘录

克服自利性偏差斯坦福大学的社会心理学家罗伯特・麦考恩（RobertMaccoun）有个有意思的观察：他发现在所有的交通事故记录中，75%的司机都指责是別人犯了错。如果事故至少涉及到两辆车，那么91%的司机都认为是对方犯错。而哪怕事故中只有一辆车，也有37%的司机能找到别人身上的原因。出了事儿都怪别人，这是人之常情。心理学家对此有个专门的名词，叫“自利性偏差”。有自利性偏差的人认为：如果我做这件事没做好，那肯定是因为不可控的别人的或者意外的缘故；如果我做这件事成功了，那肯定是因为我水平高。这种态度会使人自我感觉良好，但是不可能提高你的决策水平。人是不会从自己的失败中吸取教训的，因为他总能找到理由把失败归咎于别人。当然别人的失败有可能是你的成功之母，因为观察别人的失败，从中总结一个教训，完全不会伤害自已的自尊。不过这个方法对自利性偏差严重的患者来说也不容易，自利性偏差还包括，认为别人的成功都是因为运气，别人的失败则都是因为他这个人的水平本来就不行。杜克说，自利性偏差是职业扑克选手最大的魔障。扑克是一种零和游戏，你赢就是我输，所以人们对自己和别人的输赢都有非常强烈的感觉。如果输赢涉及到很大的利益，你的感情可能会强烈到让你根本无法客观面对现实。可是如果不涉及大的利益，你就不会真的严肃对待输赢的教训。人生就像一场场牌局，我们每个人都是参与者。在“变”和不确定”成为常态的当下，我们在信息不充分的条件下，如何做出正确的重大决策，需要一定的智慧。愿每个人都在人生长期博弈中，出好每一张牌，成为胜者。

——引自章节：前言为什么这不是一本关于打扑克的书

atruthseekingcharter:1)focusonaccuracy(overconfirmation),whichincludesrewardingtruthseeking,objectivity,andopen-mindednesswithinthegroup;2)accountability,forwhichmembershaveadvancenotice;andaccountabilityisawillingnessorobligationtoanswerforouractionsorbeliefstoothers.3)OpennesstoadiversityofideasCalibrationrequiresanopen-mindedconsiderationofdiversepointsofviewandalternativehypotheses.Accuracy,accountabilityanddiversitywrappedintoagroup'scharterallcontributetobetterdecision-making,especiallyifthegrouppromotesthinkinginbets.Theonlywaytogainknowledgeandapproachtruthisbyexaminingeveryvarietyofopinion.Severalwaystocommunicatetomaximizeourabilitytoengageinatruthseekingwaywitha...

——引自第130页