内容简介

This is an introductory textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world's foremost philosophers of science. The book has been designed to offer maximal accessibility to the widest range of students (not only those majoring in philosophy) and assumes no formal training in elementary symbolic logic. It offers a comprehensive course covering all basic definitions of induction and probability, and considers such topics as decision theory, Bayesianism, frequency ideas, and the philosophical problem of induction. The key features of the book are: * A lively and vigorous prose style* Lucid and systematic organization and presentation of the ideas* Many practical applications* A rich supply of exercises drawing on examples from such fields as psychology, ecology, economics, bioethics, engineering, and political science* Numerous brief historical accounts of how fundamental ideas of probability and induction developed.* A full bibliography of further reading Although designed primarily for courses in philosophy, the book could certainly be read and enjoyed by those in the social sciences (particularly psychology, economics, political science and sociology) or medical sciences such as epidemiology seeking a reader-friendly account of the basic ideas of probability and induction. Ian Hacking is University Professor, University of Toronto. He is Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, Fellow of the British Academy, and Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. he is author of many books including five previous books with Cambridge (The Logic of Statistical Inference, Why Does Language Matter to Philosophy?, The Emergence of Probability, Representing and Intervening, and The Taming of Chance).

作品目录

Part I. Logic:

1. Logic

2. What is inductive logic?

Part II. How to Calculate Probabilities:

3. The gambler's fallacy

4. Elementary probability

5. Conditional probability

6. Basic laws of probability

7. Bayes' rule

Part III. How to Combine Probabilities and Utilities:

8. Expected value

9. Maximizing expected value

10. Decision under uncertainty

Part IV. Kinds of Probability:

11. What do you mean?

12. Theories about probability

Part V. Probability as a Measure of Belief:

13. Personal probabilities

14. Coherence

15. Learning from experience

Part VI. Probability as Frequency:

16. Stability

17. Normal approximations

18. Significance

19. Confidence and inductive behaviour

Part VII. Probability Applied to Philosophy:

20. The philosophical problem of induction

21. Learning from experience as an evasion of the problem

22. Inductive behaviour as an evasion of the problem.